Black Friday–Cyber Monday (BFCM) 2025 won’t look like years past. The data is clear: while shoppers are still spending, it’s getting harder, and more expensive to win their attention.
In 2024, retailers faced a mixed bag of results. Conversions grew, but at half the pace of 2023. Acquisition costs jumped into double digits, and ROAS barely budged. Efficiency gains are slowing, and the easy wins are behind us. Yet, there’s good news: average order values rose nearly 8%, showing that when customers do buy, they’re willing to spend more per purchase.
So what does this mean for the upcoming season?
- Costs are rising. CPMs and CPAs continue to climb, making each new customer harder to win.
- ROAS is plateauing. Every ad dollar is delivering less return than it did just two years ago.
- Retention is critical. Existing customers now drive nearly half of all revenue during the holidays.
- Shoppers are selective. Consumers are still willing to spend, but they expect real value and personalized offers.
On top of this, the holiday calendar is working against us. With another late Thanksgiving, the window between Cyber Monday and Christmas will once again be condensed. In 2024, brands had five fewer shopping days than the year before, and 2025 will follow the same pattern. That makes early demand capture in October and November more important than ever.
The bottom line: success this season won’t come from simply throwing more money into ads. Growth will come from getting smarter about how you spend and who you target. That means:
- Doubling down on loyalty and VIP programs.
- Offering bundled products and dynamic pricing to protect margins while lifting cart size.
- Targeting lookalike audiences of your highest-value customers.
- Building retention workflows that stretch beyond Cyber Week and into Q1.
BFCM is no longer just a weekend, it’s a lifecycle moment. The brands that start earlier, spend smarter, and nurture their best customers will be the ones that thrive.
At National Positions, we help Ecommerce brands plan for the holiday rush with AI-powered strategies for acquisition, retention, and AOV growth. Let’s build your holiday plan today.