The economy is sending mixed signals heading into BFCM 2025. U.S. consumers remain financially stable, but confidence has slipped and inflation expectations are ticking up. The result? Shoppers are unwilling, not unable, to spend.
Compared to past years, efficiency gains are slowing, costs are rising, and acquisition is getting harder. At the same time, average order values are climbing, showing that when customers do buy, they’re willing to spend more per purchase.
Here’s what that means for your holiday strategy:
- Retention rules. Nearly half of holiday revenue now comes from existing customers. Loyalty programs, VIP offers, and early access can unlock growth.
- Acquisition is premium. Rising CPAs mean you’ll need to target high-LTV lookalikes and focus spend where it counts.
- Bundles lift AOV. With price sensitivity on the rise, smart bundling and upsells can maximize cart size.
- Timing is tight. A late Thanksgiving creates a shorter Cyber Week window, so early Q4 promotions will matter more.
The takeaway? Customers are out there, but they’re cautious. Brands that pair strong value with retention-driven campaigns will stand out when wallets finally open.
At National Positions, we help brands harness AI to improve discovery, retention, and ROI during the busiest season of the year.
Info@nationalpositions.com